Trust position & trajectory
Where do these numbers come from?
Illustrative planning model — not operational advice. Figures seeded from published NHSE data except operational parameters flagged ESTIMATE in the provenance; every lever is editable and every assumption is stated where it bites.
RTT performance — required glide path (implied % of list waiting <18 weeks, if required capacity is delivered)
Waiting list size (required-capacity path vs sustainable target)
Clock stops per month (required vs current delivery)
Where did the clock stops go? (recorded completions vs real activity, across the Nov-25 EPR go-live)
Recorded clock stops fell hard after the EPR go-live — but four independent public counters of the same physical activity say the hospital kept working. The exits didn't stop happening; they moved columns, from recorded completions into validation removals. This panel is why the "held at Apr-26 rate" line above should be read as a recording floor, not a capacity ceiling.
Five witnesses, one question (change vs pre-EPR; red = recorded RTT, green = real activity)
Real activity, year on year (HES/MAR activity return)
| Month | Elective admissions | OP firsts | OP follow-ups |
|---|
The list identity, month by month (RTT extracts)
| Month | List | Refs /wd | Stops /wd | Stops÷refs | Implied removals |
|---|
Sensitivity of the headline (same challenges, two metrics)
Peak capacity uplift (the +% headline)
Cumulative extra clock stops to Apr-29 (the volume headline)
Required vs what we have (capacity denominators)
| Activity | Delivered now /mo | Required at peak /mo | Uplift | Denominator basis |
|---|
Published denominators exist for clock stops (RTT completed pathways) and the shared bed pool (UEC sitrep); slots and sessions denominators are DERIVED from current activity through the same conversion parameters as the requirement — consistent, but they inherit the ESTIMATE flags. Trust theatre-timetable and clinic-template data would replace them. The DM01 and UEC pages carry their own delivered-vs-required comparisons.
Capacity levers — apply trust-wide; recomputes instantly
Specialties (treatment function level)
| TFC | Specialty | List | %<18wk | Referrals /wk | Stops /mo (now) | Required /mo (peak) | Uplift | OP slots /mo | Theatre sessions /mo | Elective beds | Diagnostics /mo |
|---|
Diagnostics scope note: the Diagnostics/mo column is RTT-referral-driven elective diagnostics only (tests per referral, an estimated parameter). The DM01 module counts the full reportable waiting-list demand — direct-access GP requests, surveillance and cancer pathways included — so its figure is roughly twice this column's total. Both are correct; the scopes differ.
Specialty trajectory
Roadmap
Waiting list → clock stops → OP / theatres / beds / diagnostics, per TFC. This page.
Modality-level waiting lists and capacity vs the 6-week standard. Open →
FDS / 31-day / 62-day timeliness by tumour site — flow standards on cohort volumes. Open →
ED 4-hour, 12-hour DTA and the shared bed pool — flow + Little's Law interaction with the elective model. Open →
Medical & nursing FTE as the cross-cutting constraint: activity-driven requirement vs supply at trend. Open →