Diagnostics (DM01) — NUH (RX1)

Phase 2: modality-level diagnostic waiting lists against the 6-week DM01 standard (interim ambition 95% under 6 weeks; constitutional <1% over). Same queueing method as the elective spine, on a 6-week window: required tests per month = demand + phased clearance to the sustainable list size, with census-shape calibration per modality.

Seeded from the published DM01 provider files (April 2026 position; April 2024/2025 for demand-growth calibration — pre-EPR pair, core modalities, working-day adjusted). Demand is estimated as waiting-list tests + year-on-year list change; levels are April's (a 20-working-day month — the model works in weekly rates so this washes out of trajectories, but monthly figures read ~5% low vs a typical month). Milestones (95% by Apr-27, 99% by Apr-29) are a documented modelling assumption aligned to the RTT trajectory. The same census-shape calibration as the RTT spine applies per modality (k anchors implied performance to the published %<6wk and scales the sustainable list). Scope note: this module counts ALL reportable waiting-list diagnostics — direct-access GP requests, surveillance and cancer pathways — so its demand (~14,500/mo) is roughly twice the elective spine's referral-driven diagnostics column (~8,000/mo). Both are correct; the scopes differ.

Loading model…

Diagnostics position & trajectory

Where do these numbers come from?

DM01 performance — required glide path (implied % waiting <6 weeks, if required capacity is delivered)

Diagnostic waiting list (required path vs sustainable target)

Tests per month (required vs current waiting-list activity)

Levers

Modalities

Modality List%<6wk13+ wk Demand /wkCensus refs /wkWL tests /mo (now) Required /mo (peak)Uplift (of WL tests) Uplift (of ALL activity) Planned /moUnscheduled /mo Stream mix

Two demand estimators, one queue. Demand /wk is the flow formula (waiting-list tests + year-on-year list change ÷ 12) — it assumes nobody leaves the list without a test, and under-reads when a queue is capacity-constrained and leaky. Census refs /wk is an independent check: the mean of the 0–1 and 1–2 week wait bands (Apr + May 2026) — each band is an arrival cohort minus early exits, so it is a floor under gross arrivals. Where the floor exceeds the flow figure by >20% the row is flagged: demand (and the required-capacity column) is understated there.

Modality trajectory

The elective spine's referral-driven diagnostics demand (phase 1) and this module currently run side by side; pathway-level linkage (RTT referrals → modality demand) is a phase 2.1 refinement.