Phase 3: the three cancer waiting-time standards —
Faster Diagnosis (28-day, 80%), 31-day decision-to-treat (96%)
and 62-day referral-to-treatment (85%, interim 70%). Unlike RTT and DM01 these
are flow standards (each month's cohort is scored on timeliness — see the
census-vs-flow explainer for why this differs from RTT):
there is no published backlog census. The model therefore works on cohort volumes × a timeliness glide
path — the gap between required timely activity and today's timely rate is the pathway
capacity to add.
Seeded from published CWT provider data (April 2026 combined CSV;
April 2024/2025 CRS provider workbooks — two formats, one statistic). April volumes are
bank-holiday depressed. Demand growth calibrated from the pre-EPR pair (Apr-24→Apr-25),
working-day adjusted on the same basis as RTT/DM01 (+4.2%/yr; the raw −0.7%
is the Easter artefact — Apr-24 had 21 working days vs Apr-25's 20, and cancer cohorts are as
clinic-driven as referrals or tests). The Apr-25→Apr-26 FDS jump (+13.4%) is EPR-affected.
Milestones are modelling assumptions aligned to the RTT trajectory. Trust PTL data would
deepen this to a backlog model.
Loading model…
Cancer position & trajectory
Where do these numbers come from?
Performance glide paths (required trajectory per standard)
Standards
Standard
Target
Apr-24
Apr-25
Apr-26
Cohort /mo
Timely now /mo
Extra timely /mo (peak)
Standard trajectory
From urgent referral to treated cancer (April 2026, per month)
Referrals by suspected site → outcome (62-day USC pathway)
Treated conversion by site
Suspected site
Referrals /mo
Treated /mo
Conversion
Levers
Tumour-site detail (April 2026)
Faster Diagnosis by suspected cancer (referral route)
Suspected cancer
Cohort
%<28 days
Treatment standards by cancer type
Cancer type
31-day
62-day
62-day cohort
Constrained pathways at NUH mirror the national picture: gynaecology,
urology (prostate and other), lower GI and breast carry the largest 62-day gaps; FDS pressure
is concentrated in gynaecology, haematology and urology. Pathway-level linkage (FDS demand →
diagnostic modality → theatre) is a phase 3.1 refinement.